On a significantly greater volume than average, trading concluded Tuesday with shares of Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), a company specializing in messenger RNA (mRNA), having fallen by a notable 6.1%.
Why are investors choosing to sit this one out instead of participating? The Wall Street Journal reported earlier in the day that the United States health authorities intend to revise their recommendation for COVID-19 booster shots from a twice-yearly schedule to a once-yearly schedule for those who are otherwise healthy.
This most recent recommendation is a direct result of a consistent drop in the number of new coronavirus cases reported across the globe over the past few weeks. In addition, the United States government has recently decided to stop providing public financial support for COVID-19 vaccines and treatments.
What exactly does all of this imply for Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA)? When administered as a once-yearly shot, Moderna’s mega-blockbuster vaccine Spikevax will likely confront a commercial landscape that is substantially less lucrative than it has been over the previous two years. It’s possible that by 2024, this market will have shrunk to the point where it’s worth less than $20 billion. That’s the worst-case scenario.
Insiders in the business had previously anticipated that Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), Pfizer/BioNTech, and Novavax would compete against one another for a share of a global coronavirus vaccine market that was anticipated to be worth around $24 billion per year in 2024. This forecast appears to be way too optimistic at this point. After all, the market for annual influenza vaccinations is only worth a little more than $5 billion.
Is now a good time to acquire shares of Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), given the recent price drop? The future for Moderna over the next two to four years is clearly not looking very positive in light of this news. Consequently, this large-cap biotechnology stock does not exactly shout out to be purchased at the moment.
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