Market Ascends on Q2 Earnings and Easing UK Inflation, Lifting Indices to Highs

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Today, the market sees a gentle rise as the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrials Index reach 15-month highs, and the Nasdaq 100 Index posts a 1.5-year high. The S&P 500 Index (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up by +0.37%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index (NYSEARCA:DIA) has increased by +0.52%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index (NASDAQ:QQQ) has gained +0.27%.

This uptick comes on the back of positive Q2 corporate earnings results, providing a much-needed support for stocks. Adding to this is the alleviating inflationary pressures in the UK, which incited a rally in European government bonds, resulting in the 10-year UK gilt yield dipping to a six-week low. This, in turn, sparked rallies in both U.S. bonds and stocks. UK June CPI eased to +7.9% y/y from +8.7% y/y in May, surpassing the expected +8.2% y/y.

The dip in U.S. June housing starts, which fell -8.0% m/m to 1.434 million—short of the anticipated 1.480 million—did not dampen the modest gains in stock indexes, and bond yields remained lower.

Markets are pricing in a 96% chance for a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting scheduled for July 25-26. They are also predicting a peak funds rate of 5.42% by November, a +34 bp hike from the current effective federal funds rate of 5.08%.

On the global stage, bond yields are a mixed bag. The 10-year T-note yield has fallen to a 2.5-week low of 3.725% and is now down -0.8 bp at 3.778%. Similarly, the 10-year German bund yield dropped to a 3-week low of 2.317% before bouncing back and is now up +2.9 bp at 2.419%. The 10-year UK gilt yield also hit a 6-week low of 4.145% and is now down -12.3 bp at 4.208%.

The global stock markets reflect a similar mixed trend. The Euro Stoxx 50 has fallen by -0.11%. However, China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed up by +0.03%, and Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index closed up by +1.24%.

Today’s Stock Gainers

Among today’s movers and shakers in the stock market, Northern Trust Corporation (NASDAQ:NTRS) leads the gains in the S&P 500, rising over +11% following its Q2 recovery of credit losses amounting to $15.5 million, which surpassed the estimated provision of $6.32 million.

AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) saw a surge of more than +7% after announcing that less than 10% of its nationwide copper-wire telecom network contained lead-clad cables.

Elevance Health Inc. (NASDAQ:ELV) rose over +6% after its Q2 adjusted EPS of $9.04 outperformed the consensus of $8.78, triggering a rally among other health insurers. These include Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) with a gain of more than +5%, Molina Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:MOH) up by more than +4%, and both Humana Inc. (NYSE:HUM) and Cigna Corporation (NYSE:CI) rising more than +3%.

Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE:CFG) saw an increase of over +4% after its Q2 provision for credit losses, amounting to $176 million, fell below the consensus estimate of $187.5 million.

M&T Bank Corporation (NYSE:MTB) reported an increase of over +3% after its bank deposits at the end of Q2 reached $162.06 billion, surpassing the consensus of $157.76 billion.

Today’s Losers

On the downside, Omnicom Group Inc. (NYSE:OMC) led the S&P 500 losers with a drop of over -10% after reporting Q1 revenue of $3.61 billion, falling short of the consensus of $3.66 billion.

Align Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALGN) saw a drop of more than -5%, leading the losses in the Nasdaq 100 following cautionary comments from Stifel about the dental service company in the short term.

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:IBKR) fell more than -2% after its Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.32 came in below the consensus estimate of $1.40.

Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL) experienced a drop of more than -1% after reporting a Q2 revenue of $5.80 billion, which was lower than the expected $5.85 billion.

Meanwhile, gold for August delivery dipped by -0.22% at -4.3, and September silver  is down by -0.02% at -0.006. With the dollar index up by +0.50%, it seems that a stronger dollar has provoked long liquidation in precious metals, offsetting the early gains in precious metals prices.

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