In the early trading hours of Turnaround Tuesday, corn futures are recording marginal losses, hovering a penny above overnight lows and experiencing 2 to 3-cent declines. The market witnessed a noteworthy shift on Monday as December futures hit new lows for the year, triggering some buying activity that led to a day-end surge, marking gains ranging from 10 ¾ to 13 ¾ cents. Preliminary data on open interest revealed short covering in the December contract, down by 28,822, concluding the index fund roll period. While there was a reduction in options activity from the previous day, December lost 8,000 puts due to new entries in other contracts.
Weekly inspection data disclosed that 608,810 metric tons (MT) of corn were shipped in the week ending 11/09, reflecting an increase from 575,000 MT the prior week and 536,000 MT during the same period last year. The season’s total shipments reached 6.161 million MT, up from 5 million MT at the same juncture in the previous year. Although shipments show a 23% year-on-year increase, they need to rise by approximately 25% to align with the latest export forecast from the USDA.
According to the Crop Progress data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), corn harvest progressed by 7 percentage points to reach 88% completion as of 11/12, surpassing the 86% average. Noteworthy state harvest figures include Illinois at 95%, Iowa at 94%, and Nebraska at 91%.
The Commitment of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for the week ending November 7 revealed a bearish stance among speculative fund managers. They added over 24,000 contracts to their net short positions during the reporting week. Contrary to the typical strategy of adding contracts during price weakness, index funds withdrew money, resulting in the smallest corn net long position since 2019.
In international markets, Ukraine’s Agricultural Ministry reported a total of 51.3 million MT as of 11/10, including 21.2 million MT of corn. This represents a substantial increase from the 9.6 million MT reported last year.
Closing prices for December 2023 corn stood at $4.77 1/4, reflecting a gain of 13 1/4 cents, currently down 2 1/2 cents. Nearby cash prices were $4.51 1/4, up 13 5/8 cents. March 2024 corn closed at $4.92 3/4, with an increase of 13 3/4 cents, currently down 3 cents, while May 2024 corn closed at $5.02, recording a gain of 13 1/2 cents, currently down 2 3/4 cents.
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Author Faith Yakubu