Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has started 2026 on shaky ground, with a year-to-date (YTD) loss hovering around 5%. This underperformance continues a trend from last year, when the tech giant gained only 8%, less than half the return of the S&P 500 Index ($SPX). Investors are now asking: can AAPL stock rebound and help Apple reclaim its crown as the world’s largest company?
The challenge is clear. Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), which led the “Magnificent 7” stocks in 2025, has overtaken Apple, ranking second only to Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA). Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) underperformance also allowed Apple to fall further behind in the global rankings.
The Shift in Tech Market Leadership
Apple first became the world’s most valuable company in 2011, surpassing ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) and marking a turning point where tech replaced energy as the driver of market leadership. Apple retained the top spot for over a decade, but 2024 ushered in a new era of competition. Nvidia and Microsoft surged ahead, leaving Apple in a reshuffled hierarchy.
The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks helps explain this shift. Nvidia’s chips are at the core of AI infrastructure, solidifying its position as the world’s most valuable company. Microsoft, despite a slower stock performance, remains heavily invested in OpenAI and thus is closely tied to AI’s market fortunes. Meanwhile, Alphabet, previously an AI laggard like Apple, made significant strides with its Gemini AI project, pushing demand for its Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) among major companies including Anthropic and Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META).
What Analysts Say About AAPL Stock Forecast
For 2026, AAPL stock has again been downgraded, this time by Raymond James, citing stretched valuations and the anticipation that iPhone 17 sales are already priced in. Notably, this is the third straight year Apple has faced early-year downgrades.
Despite the caution, analysts remain moderately bullish. The consensus rating for AAPL stock is a “Moderate Buy,” with a mean price target of $289.48—approximately 11.6% above the Jan. 9 closing price. This suggests that while expectations for rapid gains are muted, investors see Apple as a steady long-term holding.
Potential Catalysts for a Rebound
There are two key scenarios that could trigger a rebound in AAPL stock this year. First, if the anticipated AI market bubble falters, Apple could become a safe haven. Unlike its tech peers, Apple has not been a direct beneficiary of the AI frenzy, which could make it attractive to investors seeking stability in a volatile market.
Second, Apple could step up its AI capabilities. The company is expected to roll out an updated Siri along with additional “Apple Intelligence” features across its devices. However, these upgrades would need to be genuinely innovative to capture market attention, as incremental improvements in the past have not substantially moved the needle.
Will Apple Regain Its Throne in 2026?
Given Apple’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of nearly 32x, a dramatic jump in AAPL stock seems unlikely unless the company delivers breakthrough technology or products. More realistically, Apple’s chance of reclaiming the title of the world’s largest company depends as much on a potential pullback in Nvidia stock as on AAPL stock itself.
In summary, while AAPL stock forecast for 2026 is tempered by cautious valuations and competition from AI-driven peers, Apple remains a resilient player. Investors may find its relative stability appealing, especially in a year where the tech sector faces uncertainties. For Apple to rise again to the top, it will need either a market shakeout in favor of less-exposed companies or a bold leap forward in innovation.
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