After revealing late on Tuesday that it had fallen short of forecasts with Q4 production of 10,020 automobiles and deliveries of 8,054 vehicles, Rivian stock (NASDAQ:RIVN) saw a decline. 24 337 vehicles were made, and 20 332 vehicles were delivered for the entire year by the carmaker, which is based in Normal, Illinois. RIVN had 2,000 vehicles in transit at the quarter’s end, which is 5% less than anticipated for FY23.
Despite the failure, Morgan Stanley stated that it was pleased by RIVN’s ramp in 2022 and is cautiously hopeful for 2023.
Rivian Stock Forecast
Adam Jonas, analyst, “RIVN managed to improve production and deliveries Q/Q throughout the year, with 4Q deliveries exceeding 550% greater than those of 1Q, despite a challenging start to the year that saw IPO production and delivery forecasts slashed. The next year, we anticipate RIVN to continue scaling back production while maintaining our 50k car delivery forecast for FY23.”
Looking ahead, Jonas believes Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) can get through FY23 and the majority of FY24 without additional cash, but he cautioned that there is no guarantee the macroeconomic situation will improve by then. According to him, the company prefers self-funded EV businesses with proven scale and cost leadership. MS thinks RIVN gives investors access to a compelling product with a distinctive position in the commercial vehicle industry. For long-term investors, RIVN is observed to be selling at 3X 2027 EBITDA, which discounts an automaker that might produce 400k vehicles a year by 2030 and provides $0 value to the services component of the RIVN story.
Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) continues to have an Overweight rating from Morgan Stanley, with a price target of $55 (+220% potential gain). Following a 5.91% loss on the first trading day of 2023, RIVN shares dropped 0.35% in premarket trade on Wednesday to $17.28.
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