Microsoft’s Q1 Earnings Set to Benefit from Azure Cloud’s Strength

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Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is gearing up to announce its first-quarter fiscal 2024 results on October 24, and the company is poised to experience significant growth driven by its Azure cloud platform. Azure falls under the Intelligent Cloud segment, and for the upcoming fiscal first quarter, Microsoft anticipates a notable surge in revenues for this segment, expecting a rise of 14% to 15% in constant currency, with figures ranging from $23.3 billion to $23.6 billion.

It’s worth noting that Microsoft acknowledges that revenue growth from Azure can exhibit some quarterly variability. This variance primarily results from per-user business dynamics and in-period revenue recognition, which depend on the contractual mix. Based on their model estimates, Intelligent Cloud revenues are currently projected to reach $23.3 billion, indicating a substantial 15% growth compared to the same quarter in the previous year.

Azure’s sustained growth is attributed to the increasing demand for cloud infrastructure monitoring, web-based application performance management, and human capital management solutions. This demand is further fueled by the ongoing migration of workloads to the cloud. Microsoft foresees Azure’s revenue growth in constant currency to be between 25% and 26%, with roughly 2 points stemming from all Azure AI services.

In the fiscal fourth quarter, Azure recorded a remarkable 26% year-over-year growth (or 27% in constant currency). This growth momentum was driven by Azure’s consumption-based business model, and Microsoft expects this trend to continue into the fiscal first quarter. The company’s per-user business, particularly within the Microsoft 365 suite, is anticipated to reap the benefits of this momentum.

Additionally, Microsoft is witnessing increasing adoption of Azure Arc, which has garnered 18,000 customers, marking a remarkable 150% year-over-year increase. Notable names such as Carnival Corp., Domino’s, and Thermo Fisher are among Azure Arc’s satisfied users.

Azure’s expanded availability in over 60 global regions has further bolstered Microsoft’s competitive position in the cloud computing market, where it faces competition from Amazon’s (NASDAQ:AMZN) Amazon Web Services and Alphabet’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google Cloud.

In the most recent quarter, AWS revenues accounted for 17% of Amazon’s sales and grew by 12% year over year to reach $22.1 billion. However, AWS’s operating income saw a 6.1% year-over-year decrease to $5.4 billion. Amazon has managed to maintain its cloud dominance through the expansion of its AWS portfolio and the acquisition of more customers.

Alphabet’s Google Cloud reported a 28% year-over-year increase in revenues, totaling $8.03 billion, and represented 10.8% of the quarter’s total revenues. Google Cloud also achieved a notable turnaround in operating income, shifting from a $590 million loss in the year-ago quarter to a profit of $395 million.

One of the key drivers behind Microsoft’s Azure cloud success is Azure AI, which is helping organizations transform their operations by providing intelligence and insights to address their most pressing challenges. Microsoft’s exclusive partnership with OpenAI has further strengthened Azure’s capabilities, allowing it to power all of OpenAI’s workloads.

The introduction of enterprise features for Azure OpenAI and Copilots across Microsoft 365, Dynamics 365, and Power Platform is expected to be a game-changer. Azure AI is also set to usher in a new era of AI-first workloads, featuring a wide selection of advanced and open models, including Meta’s Llama on Azure and Windows, along with OpenAI’s contributions.

Microsoft is likely to benefit from the continued momentum of Azure OpenAI Service, with more than 11,000 organizations, including industry giants like Ikea, Volvo Group, Zurich Insurance, and digital startups such as Flipkart, Humane, Kahoot, Miro, and Typeface, using the service. Mercedes-Benz is even integrating ChatGPT via Azure OpenAI into more than 900,000 vehicles in the United States, enhancing its in-car voice assistant.

Furthermore, a strategic partnership between Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) and Microsoft, leveraging Microsoft’s data and analytical capabilities along with the scale of Microsoft Azure OpenAI Service, is set to create new opportunities. Snowflake is also expected to boost its Azure spending by building new integrations with Azure OpenAI.

Microsoft is actively collaborating to bring the next generation of AI to a wider audience, with Snowflake increasing its Azure investment for new integrations with Azure OpenAI. KPMG, a global professional services firm, has committed to a multi-billion-dollar investment in Microsoft’s cloud and AI services to transform its offerings.

The newly introduced Azure AI Studio is rapidly becoming the preferred tool for AI development, allowing organizations to develop, fine-tune, evaluate, and deploy models responsibly in this evolving era of artificial intelligence.

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