Is Green Plains Stock Still a Buy Despite a 42% Decline?

Green Plains Stock

Green Plains (NASDAQ:GPRE) stock has faced significant downward pressure, dropping 32% over the past year and 42% from its 52-week high. Despite this, the small-cap agri-tech company has retained favor among analysts, who foresee a potential upside for the beaten-down shares. Let’s take a closer look at Green Plains and its prospects in the current market environment.

About Green Plains

Established in 2004, Green Plains is an agri-tech firm specializing in converting renewable crops into high-value ingredients, particularly in the biofuel and animal feed sectors. It operates 10 biorefineries in the United States, with an annual capacity exceeding 1 billion gallons of ethanol production. The company, with a current market cap of $1.32 billion, focuses on sustainability and aims for carbon neutrality across its operations by 2050.

Solid Q3 Results

In the third quarter, Green Plains reported revenue of $892.8 million, surpassing consensus forecasts despite a 6.5% YoY decline. The decrease was attributed to lower selling prices on ethanol and distiller’s grains, along with reduced volumes sold on distiller’s grains. However, the company reported increased yearly volumes sold across key segments. Notably, the company reported EPS of $0.35, defying expectations for a quarterly loss.

Financial Concerns

Green Plains faces financial concerns with approximately $343 million in net debt and negative free cash flow. Yet, it holds $200 million available under a committed revolving credit facility.

Analyst Outlook

Goldman Sachs maintains a “Buy” rating on GPRE with a $39 price target, citing optimism over strategic moves like HiPro, Clean Sugar, and CCS (carbon sequestration). Craig-Hallum also backs a “Buy” rating with a $39 price target, implying over 81% expected upside. The consensus among analysts is overwhelmingly positive, with a mean price target of $41.78, representing an 84% premium.


While Green Plains faces financial challenges, its strategic moves and an optimistic outlook from major analysts suggest the potential for a comeback. The focus on sustainability and positive Q3 results contribute to the overall positive sentiment. Investors should weigh the risks associated with financials but consider the bullish outlook from analysts when evaluating whether Green Plains is a suitable investment.

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