European carbon prices experienced a significant downturn, plunging over 6% to below €55 per ton for the first time in more than two years. This decline is attributed to a combination of factors, including decreasing gas prices, mild weather conditions, and surging renewable energy production, all of which have diminished demand for pollution permits.
Dramatic Price Drop Reflects Market Shift
Benchmark carbon futures have seen a staggering 44% decline over the past 12 months, marking a stark reversal from previous expectations of steadily rising prices as the European Union intensified its climate objectives. Carbon futures for December plummeted as much as 6.7% on Monday to €53.37 per ton on the ICE Endex exchange, reaching their lowest level since August 2021.
Factors Contributing to Price Decline
The decline in carbon prices can be attributed to a variety of factors, including the decreased demand for permits due to an industrial slowdown following Europe’s energy crisis. Power stations and industrial entities in Europe require carbon permits for each ton of CO2 they emit, and the anticipation of robust demand had previously driven prices upward. However, with the current economic downturn and lower-than-expected demand for permits, carbon prices have experienced a significant decline.
Market Sentiment and Outlook
Market analysts suggest that carbon prices may continue to face downward pressure, particularly as investment funds increase their net short positions. The European Commission’s reduction of the bloc’s growth forecasts further exacerbates the gloomy macroeconomic outlook, which is expected to weigh on industrial activity and, consequently, carbon prices.
Speculation and Hedge Fund Activity
Investment funds have been actively taking short positions on carbon futures, with short positions reaching a record high in recent data releases. Moreover, open interest for options betting on carbon prices falling below €50 has surged this year, indicating heightened speculation and bearish sentiment in the market. Notably, veteran hedge fund manager Per Lekander has expressed the view that carbon permits could potentially decrease in value to as low as €35 per ton.
In summary, the sharp decline in European carbon prices underscores the complex interplay of market dynamics, economic conditions, and policy objectives shaping the carbon market. As uncertainties persist, market participants remain vigilant, closely monitoring developments and adjusting their strategies accordingly.
Featured Image: Freepik
Author Faith Yakubu 
